Full Moon Trading Tonight, that means half the world has their Ouija Boards out and you should have your track shoes on.
Spu‘s…the downside levels will remain static. 1252.60 is last years close. 1243 is the next meaningful Fib support. 1220 is a level the market will eventually seek. 1195.50 is the low this last rally started the third week Dec. 2011.
Spu upside….1280 ish is the 200 day with resting stops @ 1292.50. A close over 1297.50 would neutralize the current pattern.
Nasd…200 day mvg avg is 2432 Pit…2408-10 is the next Fib and mvg avg support.
AUD/USD…the levels coming down are as follows…95.74 Fib support ( 1/2 way back for the past 2 years),then 93.91 which would match up with the eventual swing count tgt.
USD/CAD…104.75 ( App 95.50 Futures) ….105.85 ( app 94.50 Futures)
Crude Oil… by sustaining below 82.30 we are looking for an 81 print. Brent …as mentioned last week, we thought Brent looked weaker than WTI. 95.05 then every 80 or so points on down. ..Both are extremely oversold. If shorting keep very tight stops. When a market gets in this condition it would not take much to get a huge rally to nowhere going.
USD/JPY … the 200 day is 78.65 ( app 127.15 Futures). This will continue to be a key driver in the crosses. (traders will continue to buy against the 200 day in the Yen and sell other currencies until it blows up)
Platinum…like Gold hit it’s first objectives on Friday. 1471-74 is next.
Gold…Bulls would like to see it remain over 1590 on the weekly charts. This needs all new closing strength over 1632 for more upside.
Copper…32760-32840 followed by the long term weekly avg’s around 32200
The Fib levels will not change!! There is minor wiggle room on the mvg avg’s.
General Comments…
The whole board is trading risk off. With so many ORL patterns in Risk assets and ORH’s in the metals we will have to remain vigilant for confirmation of the patterns. Whatever the political rhetoric might be, you’ll get re-traces to play.
Those of you who are buy and hold…This strategy is off my radar for at least 2-3 weeks, and even then I think it will be a short lived
trade. There will be plenty of opportunity for shorter time frame trades in individual instruments, but it still seems way too soon to put things away for a longer term play.
The entire board…From new highs in the Bonds..to new lows in the currencies and oil.. “are highly susceptible for rip your face off reversals!”
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………..
No Current Holdings
Short Term View…More Risk off
It will remain a technical driven Lemming Effect Robotic Time Frame Trade.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run. The board is trading Risk Off with rallies for the past month, in all Risk assets, being met with sellers.
The bigger seasonal game starts in another 2-3 weeks.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bond Futures… 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.
GLOSSARY