We were stopped out of our remaining SDS per the intra-day instructions yesterday.
Spu’s..1333…Nasd.. 2540…will act as macro pivots going forward…Need a definition? Click on the glossary!
Let’s take this one step further for you situational traders. Yesterday’s lows were once again just above last months close in the Equity indices. That is support and the downside pivot.
The upside pivot and resistance are the first # set. Only a good close above 1333 Spu and 2546 ish will signal more Risk On.
30 Yr. Bond Futures…150.09 (M) was last months close and resistance. 149.09 is the 18 day mvg avg and support.
Oil…85.86-86.05 is nest resistance. In succession…88.70 200 day followed by 90.78
AUD/USD…100.65…followed by major resistance starting @ 101.70-102.26
Euro…127.50-86
Yen Futures…126.66-81 resistance = 78.95 USD/JPY..in succession 78.55 ( 127.15 M) with major stops below 77.97 (128.25 M) We are going to buy USD/JPY @ 78……this is a Sell order for YEN Futures @ 128.20 ish. This is a day order only.
EUR/JPY….99.09 is the 18 day mvg avg and support. 99.46 is the daily ORL level. Watch this area for rebounds.
AUD/JPY…80.59-80.76 is the level where the 200 & 50 day mvg avg’s intersect. This will be a huge inflection area for the Risk trade!
JJG…43.72 is the 200 day. We are going to BUY this ETF as close to 43 as possible using a 42.90 stop close.( order Good Till Canceled).
General Comments…
Today will be a rumor driven price action scalp. Trade your time frames and technical levels with tight stops.
The bigger trades seasonally set up next week for a summer trade.
We’ve written the upsides in most risk indicators. These levels are static and do not change.
Model Trading Portfolio
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No Current Holdings
Short Term View…Every Trade is the same trade. It’s either Risk On or Risk Off.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run. The board is trading Risk Off with rallies for the past month, in all Risk assets, being met with sellers.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bond Futures … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.