Spu’s …1329.50-1332 is the level it’s been trying to print for the past 2 weeks. Just don’t initiate a short into this level. It’s a Bear trap area the first time down. Presently the Spu’s need back over 1342.50 for some recovery.
Currencies…The straight dollars have all hit their intermediate resistance levels ( Futures support)
AUD/JPY & CAD/JPY…still look technically good.
AUD/USD…with a violation and sustained price action under 106.30 (app 105.90 H Futures) the risk off trade would continue.
Gold…the sell stops are resting under 1714. Sustained action under this level should lead to lower prices, possibly as much as $70 if everyone decides to hit the sell button at the same time.
OIL…for the Futures Traders you can’t lose money on the trade if you took some off yesterday around 102. Keep the break-even on the remainder. They could probe as low as 99.80 and rebound. You guys can always buy them back. For the Golfing crowd, you need to give the ETF a little more scope. We will keep the stop level as stated.
Copper…the short term levels are 372.20..368.20
We would expect some 2 way action after yesterdays extremes. keep AAPL on your radar again today. If the pattern is true, 480 is next, signaling more Risk Off.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
………………Stop Close Profit Points
Long XLE 71.60 80
Long OXY 102.40 110/117
Long USO/ mental stop just below 100 crude
Long Oil 100.50 intra-day 105
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.
Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.
Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.
The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.