Stocks...
Spu’s…1800 is the qtrly pivot. Short term traders should be using this level for market tone. This is where you look for market follow through to the upside.
A lot of technicians were eyeballing the low 1770’s as support. The Long term stops are under 1760, The FED Taper Low.
Nasd 100…3512 is mvg avg support. Closing below 3485 is needed for another leg down.
MVV…put in an ORL week. Sustained and closing price action over 62 is needed to negate the pattern.
Midcap 400…132370 is the corresponding level.
Nikkei…initially broke too far. A rebound to 15,300 – 15,390 to retest last weeks ORL pattern is possible. Closing over 15,500 is needed to negate the pattern.
XLV…put in an ORL week. Closing over 56.20 is needed for this pattern to be proved false.
VIX…19.40 ish is the next technical level.
Bonds…
30 yr…133.15 is the upper end of our resistance area.
Bund…141.64 is support and the monthly ORH #. 143 is resistance. This is another instrument that has come too far.
When markets go Risk Off Equities get liquidated and cash is the by product. Money never sleeps…that cash has to go somewhere.
That somewhere has been the Bonds and Gold.
FX…
EURO…137.50 is resistance. closing over 137.85 could lead to more Euro buying.
USD/JPY…103.40 is Yen support (app 96.71 Futures)
Commodities…
Gold…1252 is short term support. Asia has identified 1280 as interim resistance.
Gold is a safety trade, Silver has industrial uses and is not.
Gold caught a bid when investors were pulling money out of Equities.
Natgas…is getting overextended in the 5.40’s
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Equity Indices have come down too far into Early Asian trading.
The Aussie has come too far and is in rebound mode.This is the same scenario with the Yen which has been mirroring the Equity Indices. Yen rallied too far and is now breaking again as the Equity Indices attempt near term oversold rallies.
The technical models have turned down near term and are in need of repair.
Spu/Bond spread is near term oversold.
Equity indices are setting up to be a buy the break/sell the rally trading affair.
Most instruments are directionally challenged. They’ve come too far
without some back and fill.
Most instruments ( Equity Indices,MXN Peso) have gone from resistance to support in 3 days. Yen & Bonds did the the polar opposite.
Note that we enclosed a long term Spu chart which shows that this market has the potential for a larger correction.
This is something we’ll focus on mid-week after the market has some time to relieve this short term oversold condition
The early trade, should be an opening range trade.
Short Term View…
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off thei r own technical s.
We are neutral Equities. The next several weeks are setting up to be a big trading affair.
Current Positions….
APPL Long
Orders are “stop on close” unless stated otherwise
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Today’s Working Orders
No working orders
