Stocks..
Spu’s…the tgt for this short swing has not changed, it’s 1717.
Nasd 100… individual names is where to look for opportunity. Before this
rally is over a test of 3320 is possible.
EWW… Mexico put in an ORH daily pattern on Wednesday with follow through yesterday. 69.48 is the 200 day mvg avg and near term resistance. Maintaining and closing over 67.72 puts in an ORH week. This is a price positive formation.
Nikkei…14,230 will be today’s pivot.
EWJ….11.40 is the must Hold level.
SMH…39.23-44 is an area you should exercise caution buying strength into today.
A close over 39.56 starts another leg up.
38.96 needs to hold today on an initial pull back
Bonds…
We laid out the Bonds yesterday, there is no change. Follow the Bonds for they will lead the currencies and the precious metals early.
FX…
Euro…@ 131.95 is unchanged on the year. This, plus being the wrong way on the crosses was the reason we recommended taking in half the shorts. Euro can trade 60-70 points either side of this level and it wouldn’t effect the picture.
AUD/USD…88.50 ish is support. This is a big go or no go level. Expect a bounce off this area the first time down. Closing under this level would leave way for an 85 tgt.
EUR/AUD…this cross needs all new strength over 148.50 to rally of under 147.25 to break.
AUD/JPY…. 88.80 will be pivotal. This level will be the short term pivot for a figure in either direction.
Commodities…
Gold…1340 is still the upside breakout. 1284-88 is the first descent Fib support.
With a big drop in the 30 yr. futures the 1260’s is possible today.
Oil…108.79 was the last high we broke from. There is now a potential double top in place.
By holding 106.90 on a break today we are looking for another 6 dollars higher on the way to a 116.50 level we’ve been looking for since 2008.
XLE…83.96 was the last high with resting buy stops above. If elected look for another dollar to start.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Although the precious Metals and the Natgas Futures have been soft, the underlying names have remained firm.
No matter what you’re trading, whether it’s going up or down, the Wednesday High or low is the level you should be keying off of for risk management.
Short Term View…
Trade instruments off their own technical s
Current Positions
Short Euro 133.40 133.40
Long Line (Sept 28 Calls) 1.30
