EUR/GBP… there is no significant big swing Fib support until closer to 79.
EURO…looking at a 12 year semi-annual chart, 122 is in the cards longer term, via 126.40-60 as long as it remains below 130.70.
AUD/USD…following the same swing as the Euro, 9420 is the next big level with major stops below. The macro swing counts can take this lower than people expect.
AUD/CAD…99 ish is the next level on the yearly charts off the 101.56 channel line break down.
USD/JPY….is violating it’s chart pattern as I write this, electing stops below 79.65 USD/JPY.
Gold…1586.80 are resting Macro stops 1578 is minor support followed by 1566. A couple of closes below this level can lead to another swing down in prices.
Oil..EIA Petroleum report 9:30 CDT
General Comments…
It’s the Mid-Week shuffle. The board has a risk off bias. Sell rallies not breaks in Risk Assets. Hamsters…you’re looking for short term oversold conditions to trap shorts for relief rallies to nowhere.
The oil report can effect the board short term, if the Oil finds any footing after the release.
The only instruments that have been positive are names NATGAS related.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
No Current Holdings
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.
30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk Odd theme going forward into late this qtr.
We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is Intelligent Risk Management.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
NATGAS…We’re looking to buy the Natty @ 1.70.