Crude Oil…The levels have not changed. 91.70 will be pivotal with 92.45 next resistance.
OXY… by maintaining higher on the week, expect an attempt @ 82.67 followed by 83.45…the risk is 80.20
Nasd 100…resistance is 2592 followed by 2626
EUR/JPY…99.68 was last years close. This now becomes a big closing macro pivot for this cross.
AUD/JPY…78.56 was last years close. By holding 77, price action back above 78.56 is positive. This is a Risk On indicator.
Gold…sustained price action above 1580 can give some legs to a Gold rally, possibly as high as 1628.
30 yr Bond Futuress….If it’s not Greece it’s Spain. Price action over 148.09-12 will lead to more strength.
General Comments…
WTI/Brent… Long Texas Tea/Short Brent is trying to cross back over the 200 & 18 day mvg avg’s. Spreaders watch for tone.
We’ll be watching XCO and ECA this A.M. to see if they can remain bid while Natgas struggles.
EWZ…is 30+% off it’s March Hi and 20% lower than where we tried a long against 60 with a 59.90 stop. Those looking for a Risk on bounce would do well to focus some attention here.
Brazil has a potential double bottom on the yearly just shy of 49.25. I’m looking for this to make an attempt
at 55, by staying over 51.50 ish on a closing basis. This means anything in the mid 54’s will be an exit for 2/3rds
of any position attempted.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………..
No Current Holdings
Short Term View…
Neutral…It will remain a technical driven Lemming Effect Robotic Time Frame Trade.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bond Futures … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Foreign Exchange…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.
GLOSSARY