Here we are, right back to last week’s low in the Equity Indices. Looking at the board, most every trade is the same trade. It’s a “Risk Off” Look.

AUD/JPY…EUR/JPY…SPU/BONDS…DAX/BUNDS

NASD 100…mid 2630’s will be support and a possible bear trap the first time down.

Spu’s… stops under under 1359

Euro…Aussie and their Crosses are still within their recent ranges.

30Yr. Bonds..are trying the upside. We’ll monitor these off the spreads to see if they can follow through.

BTP…Italian Bond Futures…went half way back on the year @ last night’s low. (99.50-60 ish)

General Comments…

It’s pretty clear that Europe has been buying U.S. Bonds, and German Bunds all night and selling the peripheries. ( flight to quality). We’re looking for the Nasd 100 to trade down to he 2580’s on the short swing. This instrument should move in 40-50 point increments on the way down.

The energy ETF’s like the XLE look vulnerable to a good break.

Let the day unfold, sell rallies not breaks.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

………………                               Stop Close             Profit Points

Long GDXJ                              22                            24.79/25.88

Long SDS                                 15.15

Short Term View

We’re looking for the Gold to bottom.

We are placing a resting order to BUY NATGAS @ 1.70 ( Dr. Nenner’s Long term Downside Tgt.)

Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!

Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.

Trade to Make Money!

Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.

30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.

Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.

Copper…We’re looking to sell rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk Odd theme going forward into late this qtr.

We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.

We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a  defined risk parameter another. Our business is Intelligent Risk Management.

Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.