Today will bring the 30 Yr. bonds into the spotlight with futures expiration.

We witnessed a big day trade in the Swiss,Euro and Aussie yesterday, which we have NO position in after our stops were elected last night.

The board is currently Risk off, however I am not convinced that it will get much traction.

Spu/Bonds…will be in play over the next 2 trading days with the straight Bond action being of more interest than the S&P.

The Spu’s,Euro,Oil,Aussie, & Copper have all come down into short term support areas. Day Traders should be wary of pressing direction. ( selling weakness)

Every pundit is trying to pick a top in the equity market. We need more evidence. For the longer time frame guys, it’s a good day to stay out of trouble.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

………………                               Stop Close             Profit Point

No Current Holdings

Short Term View

Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!

Trade to Make Money!

Medium Term View…

30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.

We’re going to be eyeballing a “possible” Long this week via either the 30 Yr. Futures of the TLT ETF. We will be monitoring the Spu/Bond spread to confirm a trad able level. While the markets could certainly turn at month end, the week after could provide the better opportunity. Since we only trade what is in front of us,we’ll wait for a proper setup to initiate.

Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.

Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.

The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.