Stocks..
TBT…closing over 76.60 will lead to another leg up.
Spu’s…need to sustain above 1762-4 for higher.
Spu/Bond…is trading at the level it broke from in 2007, the same level that precipitated the 90 point sell off last month.
Bonds
30 yr. Futures…133.15 is the qtrly closing pivot.
Bonds have been giving us point moves on a daily basis.
FX…
Euro…looks to have bottomed for now. Sustained price action over 135.30
would be needed for confirmation.
EUR/JPY…132.80 is support. Maintaining over 133.60 is needed for higher.
EUR/AUD…is into point & figure support , however this is the one cross that looks to have potential for another couple of figures to 140.
GBP/USD…need under 159 to show anything on the downside. I doubt you’ll see much under 157.50 if that happens.
USD/CYN…the Yuan needs to breakout of last nights range for new direction.
Commodities…
Oil…qtrly sell stops are 93.94. Crude looks overdone on the downside.
96.60 is resistance. Only closing over 97.50 would have me looking for more upside.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Equity markets are still holding higher on the month. Until we see a close lower on the month across the major Indices, investors will keep buying breaks.
We’ve paired back our Long TBT/ Short Bond trade last week.
The TBT shows the difficulty in trading the ETF’s as they did not
trade with the Futures.
I.E. Thursday the Futures closed lower and the Double Short TBT was off almost 1%, only to regain that plus much more Friday as the Futures stopped breaking and the ETF kept rallying.
We still have a little long Vix on via the 14/16 call spread. This is cheap portfolio insurance. We’ve made enough in the last 2 trades to have a cushion to let it ride for a bit.
Time Frame Trading today.
Pay attention to the early capital flows, the bigger game will be at the end of the week with the employment report.
Short Term View…Keep trading to make money.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s. The Equity Indices seem stretched at these levels.
Go with the flow. Use the 9/30/13 ( September 30th) closes as your macro pivots. Trade the opening ranges and early time frames.
Today’s Working Orders..
Sell the remaining Long TBT @ 76.45 GTC
Current Positions…
| Opened | Price | Stop TGT | |||||||||||
| TBT |
Equity | Long |
10/24/13 |
72.57 |
71.90 |
76.60 | |||||||
| VIX | Equity | Long 14/16 C |
10/29/13 |
55 |
|||||||||