Currency Futures expiration @ 9:15 CDT….Canada Tuesday ….Bond Futures Wed. Spu’s…1349-52 is Fib resistance and a possible weekly double top area. 1333 is the pivot. Nasd…2571 is a fib match with the 100 day mvg avg. 2610 is the 50 day with stops above. 2540 is the pivot. OIL…85.70-90 is 1st resistance, 2nd 87 ish. Copper…34945-35000 Fib resistance Euro…127.50-86 Fib resistance Yen Futures… USD/JPY 78.55 ( 127.15 M) with major stops below 77.97 (128.25 M) EUR/JPY….99.09 is the 18 day mvg avg and support. 99.46 is the daily ORL # .Watch the level for rebounds. 6/15/12…Resistance is now 100.95-101.06 AUD/JPY…80.59-80.76 is the level where the 200 & 50 day mvg avg’s intersect. This will be a huge inflection area for the Risk trade! USD/CAD…needs sustained price action under 101.85 for a higher Canada JJG…43.72 is the 200 day. We are going to BUY this ETF as close to 43 as possible using a 42.90 stop close.( order Good Till Canceled). General Comments… Let the currencies be your guide today. Whether you have a Risk On or Risk off bias the Currencies will lead today. AUD/USD…is the place to focus over the next few sessions for currency traders. We’ve written the upsides in most risk indicators. These levels are static and do not change. Typically, today going into month end is when we get see how the next directional trade in the markets will set up. The AUD/JPY has been a great bellwether. Model Trading Portfolio …………….. Stop Close Profit Points No Current Holdings Short Term View…Every Trade is the same trade. It’s either Risk On or Risk Off. It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run. The board is trading Risk Off with rallies for the past month, in all Risk assets, being met with sellers. Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops! Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day. Trade to Make Money! Medium Term View… 30 Yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme. Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day. Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise. I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months. We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”. Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level. GLOSSARY
