Nasd (M)…2574 is Fib resistance…2571 is the weekly ORH level with stops above.
Spu’s (M)..1322 Fib resistance ….1334.20 is the weekly ORH level with stops above. This is also a 50% re-trace of the entire move. 1345 would be the lowest risk sell zone
Spu/Bonds..either stop right in here or they can go another 2 figures back to the 200 day @ 9036
AUD/USD…100.72…102.15-30 is the macro multi-year pivot
Euro…12625-43 is the next hurdle.
AUD/JPY…78.64 was last years close. By remaining above 79.67-97 is next.
OIL…86.71….88.85….90.62-
AAPL… sustaining above 583 will be market positive. Closing above 583 Friday would be Bullish.
OXY….85.18…87.16 resistance
General Comments…
China just cut rates, now it’s up to Ben.
Downside pressure has been relieved in everything. Uncle Ben is speaking at 9 CDT.
Since everyone is mesmerized by the Spu’s, they’ll need to reject up here and get back under 1309-11 and stay under for confirmation of a high.
The levels are known in pretty much all instruments whether it be resistance or support. Our job is to figure out how and when it will travel between those number sets.
Model Trading Portfolio
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No Current Holdings
Short Term View…Every Trade is the same trade. It’s either Risk On or Risk Off.
We think you’ll have better Risk -Reward looking to sell the big rallies at defined resistance ( with tight stops) after such a big 2 day up, than buying strength.
It will remain a technical driven Lemming Effect Robotic Time Frame Trade.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run. The board is trading Risk Off with rallies for the past month, in all Risk assets, being met with sellers.
The bigger seasonal game starts in another 2-3 weeks.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.
GLOSSARY