Unenjoyment with the French elections and “Full Moon Trading” to complete the weekend Trifecta

On Saturday, the United States will be treated to a “Supermoon” event — an evening where the full moon appears at its largest and brightest in the night sky. It’s the first of six major celestial events slated to occur in the month of May.

It all boils down to increased volatility and possible trend change. Remember, just because you put your Ouija board away as a youngster, doesn’t mean the other half of the world has.

For you true believers, don’t forget to clear your crystals under the Full Moon, if you want to purge all the negative waves from this past lunar cycle. I suggest “Esprit Du Sel”, organic FRENCH sea salt in concert with the French Election.

Nasd 100…for the Bears, the optimal scenario is an early failed rally with a retest back to the 2705 area and then implode.

Spu’s…my work is simple, it hasn’t confirmed higher with a close over 1402. Sustained and closing price action under 1375-76 will find a big Que of the long only crowd at the vomitoriums.

Gold… This has to hold the mid 1620’s on a closing basis for the bull story to remain viable. If the Gold fails we will exit the Miners.

Aussie…for the professional crowd, we bought our “Risk Off” lotto ticket yesterday, via the May 101.50 & 102 puts basis the June Futures that expire today. Again, 102 ish, is the macro pivot for the past 2 years, not an insignificant level.

30 yr. Bonds…the point & figure charts show all new strength over 143.10 is needed for more upside. My macro work shows a couple closes over 145 is needed for a whole new big swing up. If they go the other way, buy em @ 139.15 ish, you’ll get a bounce to make money.

General Comments…

We’re still clinging to the miners, if for no other reason than everyone else hates them. Some of you have some JJG, use a 46 stop close for now.

We have exited all other positions and remain market neutral other than our Aussie lotto tickets, which are not listed in our current holdings. We will only post positions for the golfing set in those holdings, pros are quite capable of managing their own book.

Aussie Puts…I hate unemployment days in general, call it age or chalk it up to too arthritic to click!

Yeah! I took the easy defined risk way out. Roulette…Black or Red…simple.

Typically, today shows major extremes for the Bonds as well as the precious Metals. “Hamsters“, keep your heads in the charts! It will be a price action trade. Trade what you see.

Conceptually, with yesterday’s puke in the Equity Indices, I’m more interested to see where any rallies fail, than where the early breaks might hold.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

………………                               Stop Close             Profit Points

Long GDXJ                              21                             24.79/25.88

Short Term View

Cheap rates are driving the chase for riskier assets. We will continue to look for opportunity in sectors or stocks that are laggards. We remain in singles mode. 8-10% trades are great.

Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!

Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.

Trade to Make Money!

Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.

30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.

Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.

Copper…We’re looking to sell rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk Odd theme going forward into late this qtr.

We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.

We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a  defined risk parameter another. Our business is Intelligent Risk Management.

Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.

NATGAS…We’re looking to buy the Natty @ 1.70.