AUD/USD…the levels coming down are as follows…96.64…95.74 Fib support ( 1/2 way back for the past 2 years),then 93.91 which would match up with the eventual swing count tgt.
Copper…32760-32840 followed by the 200 day @ 32200
EUR/JPY…97.01 is the year low. The daily RSI shows extremely oversold.
USD/JPY…price action @ 78.62 will be pivotal in discerning the next move in the Aussie & Euro against the Yen. This is app 127.20 in the June Futures. It’s the 200 day in the cash…The futures 200 day is 127.40. I expect this level to run the crosses.. sustaining above in the Yen futures means more risk off. Rejecting the level can lead to directional corrections across the board.
General Comments…
The Yen crosses have been telegraphing the Risk Trade. Once EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY both failed to go higher on the year going into early Asia Tuesday night, it was all over for the equities. Classic Time Frame Trading.
Today EUR/JPY, due to it’s oversold condition, can bite everyone in the behind!
EPV…this is the double short Europe ETF. 46.20 ish is the level to watch for your Risk barometer. Above it’s more Risk Off…Below profit taking ensues.
Today is the final trading day of the month, Don’t fight the flow.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………..
No Current Holdings
Short Term View…
Neutral…It will remain a technical driven Lemming Effect Robotic Time Frame Trade.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bond Futures … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Foreign Exchange…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.
GLOSSARY