Nasd 100 Futures…a close above 2775 will have us close out our Long QID trade. This can still trade the 2839 Fib level.
Spu’s…needs price action & closes back under 1400 to be negative.
30 Yr. Bonds…need some sustained action above 139 or below 137 to expand the recent range.
Copper…the weekly look remains relatively positive using 382.40 as a closing pivot. Breakouts only occur with a weekly close above 393 or below 375.
Sox…43800 will be pivotal. This instrument closed right on it’s Monthly ORH reversal #. Use this area as a macro pivot and general Risk indicator.
Mos..has a monthly double top pattern in place @ 59.80. Sustained price action below 54.11 should be deemed negative.
USD/JPY….is stuck between 82 & 83.40-50 ( app.120 & 122 Futures)
OIL…needs closing action back over 104 to show strength.
In general,Shorter Term Players..keep it simple… just trade from a side using Friday’s close as a pivot and see what develops.. Meaning, just use Friday’s closes as your pivot…Above…buy before you sell…Below…sell before you buy..with tight stops
Last year saw a big April rally ( Risk ON) in the equity indices, then implosion into May. The board needs some time to play out before we’re going to get too committed.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
Long QID/Short Nasd 29.80 30.70/32 +
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.
30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is Risk Management.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
AUD/JPY… 88.08 is the qtrly level we’ve been focused on. 90 is the macro upside closing pivot.