LTRO was a big yawn…
The commodity currencies are leading the crosses this A.M.
USD/CAD…a close under 99.06 USD/CAD is needed for an ORL week. ( over 100.90 H Futures). 99.29 USD/CAD ( 100.69 H Futures) is where the 50 mvg avg line comes in. This is an important weekly area, watch for market tone.
Resting stops are under 98.92 USD/CAD, which is the Oct. Dollar Low. Sustained price action and closing under this level will lead to more Canada strength, Dollar Canada weakness.
Oil…Bulls can use last night’s low for risk control on any new longs.
AGU…is looking good with the entire Grain complex. A weekly close over 85.92 puts in an ORH week, which portends higher prices.
CME…280-2 is the macro support….the short term weekly remains positive over 287…on the very long term qtrly charts this is trying to put in an ORH Qtr with a March close over 280.76. macro qtrly stops are just above 300. This is a buy on the hard breaks candidate for the next month.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
Long GLD 168
Long Gold 1750
Long GDXJ 28
JJG 45 48 ish
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.
We’re going to be eyeballing a “possible” Long over the next couple of weeks via either the 30 Yr. Futures of the TLT ETF. We will be monitoring the Spu/Bond spread to confirm a trad able level. While the markets could certainly turn at month end, the week after could provide the better opportunity. Since we only trade what is in front of us,we’ll wait for a proper setup to initiate.
Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.
Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.
The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.