A.M. Look 11/18/11

Euro…It’s caught between 135.50 and 134 ish. A momentum close is needed either way, above or below, for a short term signal.

Oil…100 is short term resistance. If the board goes Risk Off again. 94.50 could be revisited.

Gold…we’ll need sustained action today over the low 1740’s to think the low is in. We’ll keep it on our radar and be patient. More price action is needed for this to base out again.

Equity Indices…Overall there were enough matches in the Euro,Spu, Nasd , and the SPY in short term Fibonacci land to hold the markets, for at least an interim breather.

Headline risk will be great over the weekend. A cogent package, progress out of Europe on the Debt, will have the equities up on Sunday night. More of the same and it will again be viewed as market negative.

Day trading is the order of the day. If you have a futures account you can play Sunday night. Long term guys…keep your cash and hit a beach, Old Man Winter is starting to descend on Chicago.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

No positions

Our view is that the rest of the year will be a high volatility, highly technical, rumor driven, Time Frame, Lemming Effect Day Trade.
The question is who’s day? Right now it’s Europe’s.

Medium Term View
Our medium term view is that the Equity markets have put in a bottom for the next few months at 1070 SPU. We want to see the S&P 500 Futures hold this 1206 ish level on a closing basis or we will reevaluate our view.

Metals…we’re looking for strength through year end.

30 Yr. Bonds …I’m treating 147 as the high for a long time. 143.10 now becomes our upside pivot. Closing above this level
will be short term positive the Bonds and negative the equities.

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