I’m feeling like I’m in a bad B movie, and Boris Karloff has strapped me to the rack in his torture chamber.

OIL…Needs all new strength over last nights high or under 101.50 for weakness.

Gold…We’re standing pat for our longer time frame guys (long). The downside risk is margin related selling from another swoon in the stock indices. If that scenario were to unfold, the low 1700’s down to 1680 ish is possible, where we think it’s a screaming buy again. Gold needs sustained price action over 1790 to start another leg up.

All instruments are trading extremely technical, stopping both ways at every major level. The board is becoming increasingly harder to fathom. Typical market leaders often lag. The yen crosses ( EUR/JPY…AUD/JPY) keep screaming risk off, but in the greater scheme of things, the U.S. equity Indices are still relatively unchanged on the year.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
Long SSO
Long TBT
Long S&P 500 Futures/Short 30 Yr. Bond Futures.
Long Gold Futures/ and or/ GLD

All stops are as previously stated.

All trades have been paid for. Meaning, we’ve taken partial profits. Whether or not we get stopped out,
we still make money.

For New readers…
We’re very small in the SPU/BOND trade. In fact this is one of our smallest positions all year.
Our view is that the rest of the year will be a high volatility, highly technical, rumor driven, Time Frame, Lemming Effect Day Trade.
The question is who’s day? Right now it’s Europe’s.

For New readers…Trade location…

We generally will take 10% trades all day long, particularly since we pride ourselves on trade location ( picking low risk areas with limited risk). Typically these trades pan out with in 1-2 days for directional confirmation. The last buys in the Spu were around 1214. The Bonds were sold +- a few ticks of 143 in the 30 year. Gold…Low 1770’s.

At one point we had 3 full points in the Bonds and 70 points in the Spu in our favor. We’ve been taking that kind of money on these trades all year. Typically they happen rapidly ,within a few days.

New readers…I’ve added some comments in the lower section to help you follow.

We’ve captured  enough big swings in the overall markets and underlying instruments this year to sit back, go to all cash, and wait for ripe opportunities whether we get filled at our price tgt’s or stopped out of our existing portfolio.

Medium Term View…
Our medium term view is that the Equity markets have put in a bottom for the next few months at 1070 SPU. We want to see the S&P 500 Futures hold this 1206 ish level on a closing basis or we will reevaluate our view.

Metals…we’re looking for strength through year end.

30 Yr. Bonds …I’m treating 147 as the high for a long time. 143.10 now becomes our upside pivot. Closing above this level
will be short term positive the Bonds and negative the equities.