Stocks...
Spu/Bonds…the low yesterday matched the yearly uptrend line and cloud support.
The spread either holds here or it takes a dive.
SPU’s…the 200 DMA is @ 1903. The weekly support line we’ve held all year comes in at 1912 ish. Closing below this level would open the Indices to further weakness.
VIX…17.47 is the 200 week Mvg avg ( resistance). VIX needs price action and a close over this level to signal more index weakness.
DAX…looks the worst. 8903 was the August low when the Spu’s went to 1890.
DAX below 8903 targets 8600.
IWM…107.27 will be short term pivotal. Sustained price action below targets 100 and lower.
Russell will need to get back over 109.30 close to begin to repair it’s technical damage.
Bonds …
30 Yr. Bonds…142.15, then just shy of 144 is possible with more Risk off.
TLT…120.60-70 is technical resistance. Closing above 121.20 starts a new ball game to the upside with a Risk Off Board.
FX…
Euro…once below 125.80, look for a retest of last weeks low. We’ve lowered our trailing stop to just over yesterday afternoon’s high @ 126.90 cash.
Commodities…
Gold… the long term sell stops are @ 1179. price action over 1215 is needed for a test of 1241. The long term point & figure has now put in a reversal with last night’s high projecting a possible bottom.
A Friday close over 1222 puts in an ORH week.
GDXJ…needs a close over 33.60 to rally anywhere.
Crude…needs above 90.58 for higher. 88.85 is semi-annual mvg avg support.
The monthly chart is broken. The next set of macro sell stops are @ 85.60.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
I was just out on the deck for a chilly but magnificent view of the Full Lunar eclipse.
The Fed minutes will be market moving this afternoon.
3800 is the first Nasd 100 tgt.
Spu’s will stop at all the levels 1911-12, 1902, I’m still targeting 1875.
…………………………
Current Positions….
Short EURO 128.76 126.90 122
…………………………
Today’s Working OrderBUY 1 Euro @ 126.90 Stop OCO 122.40 GTC!
This order is based off cash. The Futures are app a 5 tick premium.
