AUD/JPY…77.80 was last weeks close. We need all new strength over this level for upside.
AUD/USD…sustaining above 98.15 will be positive. The spread ( forwards) to futures is now app 20 point discount.
Spu/Bonds...are trying to poke their head up toward the 200 day @ 90.25.
SP Midcap…by sustaining over 939 can probe the mvg avg’s @ 948.
30 yr. Bond Futures…need to sustain under last nights low of 146.31 for lower. Watch for tone on the spread.
Crude Oil…91.50-70 is the upside pivot.
General Comments…
Everyone will be heading off for parts unknown early this a.m. for the long weekend. Those of you who enjoy pain can stick around and fight the robots later in the day. Expect thin markets!
It’s OK not to trade…cash is sometimes the best position of all. Let it be!, Try and enjoy your weekend.
Sell rallies and buy breaks day for the day traders. Chasing direction ( higher highs or lower lows), as evidenced by the the previous 4 days, can be hazardous to your P&L.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
…………….. Stop Close Profit Points
No Current Holdings
Short Term View…
Neutral…It will remain a technical driven Lemming Effect Robotic Time Frame Trade.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bond Futures … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Foreign Exchange…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.
GLOSSARY