Currencies…
Euro…131.50 is the downside pivot, only sustained and closing action through this zone will lead to more downside.
AUD/USD…102.64 is support. The downside pivot is 102.00 same as above.
USD/JPY…needs sustained price action under 82.00 USD/JPY ( over 122 M Futures) for more upside.
SPU…needs sustained price action and a close under 1396 for more downside.
Nasd 100…put in a double top yesterday…needs over 2793 for more upside.
30 yr. Bonds…137.15 is the 1st short term resistance. The First macro stops were elected under 136.15.
This picture says one thing…Do Not sell weakness! The entire board can reverse from here…let it play out into the A.M. #’s
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
No Current holdings
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.
30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is Risk Management.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
AUD/JPY… 88.08 is the qtrly level we’ve been focused on. 90 is the macro upside closing pivot.