We’ve been bailed out by Greece? Truly frightening!

Matches….the importance of matches! We try to paint a picture to illuminate the best set ups.

Today you saw that, both the Bund and U.S. 30 Yr., achieved their near term tgt’s. The Sek went up to a monster level and rejected, GBP/USD basically hit it’s downside tgt. while the Nasd traded 2200 ( the pivot for the rest of the qtr.). Let’s not forget the Euro spiking unchanged on the qtr ( doing it on an out sized standard deviation move) and the Spu at the 200 day..These are Matches! Lots of Markets Hitting Major Technical levels at once.

The more big Macro levels that are in play at anyone time, the greater the chance that mkts reverse the current time frame Capital Flow (Direction). The Long Equity/Short Bond spread caught the market wrong footed in a big way today.

Sometimes it’s enough just to know to take your money, or to NOT try a low probability flow trade. We knew it was not an area to be short into. The tough part is the timing of a turn. The markets pressed direction into London’s close before we saw the first wave of short covering. Trading is as much about not leaning into big Macro levels from the wrong side of the market as it is being right direction. I.E. Today it was selling equity weakness after a big std. deviation move, while all the ancillary markets were telling you it was not the best idea.

Oil…We’ve had 89 as a buy # for a long time. We knew it would be good for a bounce the first time down, how high was unknown. Today langer had the stone cold low on his daily matrix! Nice job David! This just shows the importance of matching up the daily matrix with the big macro levels in case they overrun or in this case, stop a little shy.

Tomorrow is another day. We’ll see if that’s it for the downside for a while.