Russell…needs sustained and closing action over 76300 to attempt 77500
Nasd 100…2575 is Fib resistance
Spu’s..1334’s is Fib resistance with a major hurdle @ 1322-25
30 Yr.Bonds…147 will provide the clues for the next swing here as well as the SPU/BOND spread. 9015 is the 200 day. Expect price rejection the first time on the way back up.
General Comments…
It would not be unexpected to make an attempt to probe the reversal closes form yesterday in the Equity Indices. If you note last night’s lows, the Indices did just that.
Spu’s should stop every 10 points…”what was support is now resistance”. This is true for every instrument.
Last week it was Do Not Sell Weakness….Now it’s just the opposite…Do Not Buy Strength…Trade on your own terms. Let the market come to you.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
No current holdings
Short Term View
Day Traders should get some 2 way traffic today. it’s very important to see how the breaks hold over the next couple of sessions to see if we keep our Rally hats on for a couple of weeks.
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.
30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk Odd theme going forward into late this qtr.
We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is Intelligent Risk Management.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
NATGAS…We’re looking to buy the Natty @ 1.70.