USD/JPY...is poking it’s head up on the monthly, which could lead to the Yen eventually moving to the 107 area and beyond.
In the meantime were at multi year levels in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY which will make me reticent to chase direction without some more price action to verify a new leg up in Dollar/Yen.
Yen Futures… the yearly swing going back to the 1985 Plaza accord, 96.60 is possible (app 103.50 USD/JPY), however 98.25 could foil dollar bulls on the initial attempt.
EUR/AUD…looking through that same lens you can see off the Annual chart that this cross looks to have some real potential off our 127 level. Monthly & Qtrly resistance is right around 129.50. The cross rejected this level the first time up, however once through this should gain some momentum.
AUD/USD….has broken down and is in sell rally mode. My initial tgt’s are a couple of hundred points lower.
CAD/JPY…has broken out on the qtrly chart, now it’s challenging it’s yearly levels. 100.66 was the first set of buy stops. 103.70 is the next technical area.
Bunds…145 +- 15 ticks is pivotal.
30 Yr. Bonds…they could extend to 145.04-07. This is the one that got away.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
When our rates are rising and everyone else is cutting, creates a positive environment for the dollar.
A.M. Look 5/9/13
30 yr. Bonds…147.08-12 is resistance today. This will also represent a retest of the weekly ORL.
Talk about a brutal day!!! I was a wiggle off and a lot of dollars short. That’s what I get for proof reading my work in the TBT, correcting my stop, and trading against the early high in the Bonds.
It’s a fine line between getting them on your terms or possibly missing the move.
The social media rumor mill doesn’t help either.
Be it known that my first look, after my third cup of Sant’ Eustachio il caffe, is usually my best look of the day.
Pavlovian training from too many years in the pits has left me with a penchant for trading with extremely tight stops.
Gold & Silver are getting back to macro support again, which is 1440 Gold and 23.25 Silver. There are sell stops below the aforementioned levels.
XLP & IYT ( consumer staples & Dow Transports) put in potential topping patterns.
Just a word about tgt’s, there is always another one but you usually get some good wiggle off them. The one time you don’t tighten up your risk levels at a big swing tgt will be the time you wished you had.
I.E. 2975 Nasd 100 is one of those tgt #’s that has potential for a good reaction, however completing the full swing would take Nasdaq to 3085.
So yes, we had tone and took the shot buying the QID. Now we’ll let it breathe for a little bit to see if this May Rally continues or not.
Game Plan…
We’re long the QID, which is a double short Nasdaq 100. Price action back above 2970 will have us unloading this.
There was a boat load of Dollar buying after 12 CDT yesterday…Now ask yourself where those dollars are going to find
a home?
Money Never Sleeps…”Gordon Gekko”
I sincerely doubt it’s going to sit in overnights or a money market account. That was the first reaction to the rabid Dollar buying yesterday when the Bonds got bought and we got stopped on our TBT, before reversing.
Short Term View…
Use the 4/30/13 closes for your short term pivots in everything!
