Stocks...
Every instrument is an Island unto itself.
Bonds …
Bunds…159.00 is the qtrly pivot. A close under the 50 DMA @ 158.84 is needed to confirm lower. 159.85 is resistance,yesterday’s breakdown level.
30 Yr. ...is getting oversold. We’re getting into an area where selling weakness is risky,
particularly in front of a Fed Statement. 159.15 is the .618 Fib retrace from the March low.
10 Yr….128.24 will be pivotal all day.
FX…
EURO…held mvg avg support last night. Pattern buy stops are @ 110.36USD/JPY…118.75 ( 84.50 Futures) will remain the closing level to see a stronger Yen.
GBP/JPY…has had a big three week rally. 183.95 is an area that can reject given the length of the move and the day of the week.
Commodities…
OIL..55.25 is a bear trap the first time down.
The upside breakout in Oil is over 58.65 close (20.25 USO)
The upside breakout in Oil is over 58.65 close (20.25 USO)
Natgas…is putting in a possible bottoming formation. There is a lot of overhead resistance and the trades looks like it could be a slow grind.
You need to see it stay above 2.48 for this to mature into a bottom.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Equities are a mixed bag, earnings that you would expect to be good like Matercard and the Hotel chains have been strong.
Today is a big inflection day. I bought the Vix ETF again as a hedge and a trading vehicle for a Risk off event which could be triggered by a hawkish statement.
Downside in the Vix seems limited every time the Vix trades into the low 12’s.
We see a bounce. Yesterday it was an Iran rumor that gave it a quick 15% lift.
The bonds side has been running the Equity spreads for the past couple of days. it should be no different today.
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Current Positions…. Entry Stop TGT
LONG AAPL 149.50
LONG UVXY 9.76
LONG UVXY 9.76
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