USD/CAD..either side of 99.20 USD/CAD ( 100.70 H Futures) is the next hurdle level.

AUD/USD…shows all new strength is needed above 108.00-25 for new upside.

USO…a couple of closes over 40 in this etf should project another 10% toward 44.

We keep mentioning the currencies, and the commensurate Yen crosses, because they are the harbingers of the Risk on Trade. The stock indices rise and fall with the Dollar movements, not the other way around.

Everyone will be out the door in the U.S. by the time London closes for their flights for margaritas in the sun.

Expect some back and forth with shorter term players squaring their books for the holiday weekend.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

………………                               Stop Close             Profit Points

Long XLE                                  71.60                         80

Long OXY                                 102.40                      110/117

Long USO                                 37.80

Long Oil                                   100.50 intra-day        105

Long Canada Dollar Futures       99.54

Short USD/CAD                        100.50

Short Term View

Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!

Trade to Make Money!

Medium Term View…

30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.

Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.

Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.

The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.