A.M. Look 11/14/11

AAPL… Many of you indicated that you ( led off on the buy level) and took a small Long position, even though it did not fill us at our preferred level, therefore we’ll write as though we’re Long for those of you that started building a long position. The game plan here is to play this with a very tight stop against 376. We are NOT going to buy anymore. “Cancel resting Orders

We’re looking for one more time up in this stock. This will be treated as a short term trade matching the broader index. If we get stopped out we’ll try one more time at the 200 day mvg avg around 362.

All investors should pay very close attention to Dr. Nenner’s Sunday night research on AAPL. The present formation shows a 3 day Island top from this past earnings report ( 10/14-10/18) A close under his long term model # and this stock will take on all the characteristics of a Microsoft.

AAPl has been a key market leader over the past several years. A falling stock price will make it very difficult, if not downright impossible, to remain bullish ( Risk On Bias) the rest of the board.

GOLD…We are selling ( taking partial profit) 20% of this long trade on an 1830 print in the futures. This will pay for our stop and allow us to raise up our existing 1747 Stop Close. Our style is to pay for the trade or stop when it goes our way. This way, if we do get stopped out, the loss is negligible.

1800 remains significant resistance.

SPU…S&P 500 Futures…As previously mentioned, our full swing count could take us into the 1330’s. Anywhere close, and we’re closing out our Longs in the Equities ( any Risk On Instruments) and Equity Indices.

Last night saw another failure of the 1270’s going into London’s opening, when the entire board went Risk OFF. The day levels of interest on the downside today are 1252..1243.50.

The world is trading off London’s opening and closes…pay close attention to your time frames. We live in a world where every trade is the same trade, just a different instrument.

Risk On…Investors buy equities,metals,hard assets,and sell Bonds & U.S. Dollars. Risk Off….the total opposite.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
Long SSO
Long TBT
Long S&P 500 Futures/Short 30 Yr. Bond Futures.
Long Gold Futures/ and or/ GLD

All stops are as previously stated.

All trades have been paid for. Meaning, we’ve taken partial profits. Whether or not we get stopped out,
we still make money.

For New readers...
We’re very small in the SPU/BOND trade. In fact this is one of our smallest positions all year.
Our view is that the rest of the year will be a high volatility, highly technical, rumor driven, Time Frame, Lemming Effect Day Trade.
The question is who’s day? Right now it’s Europe’s.

We’ve captured  enough big swings in the overall markets and underlying instruments this year to sit back, go to all cash, and wait for ripe opportunities whether we get filled at our price tgt’s or stopped out of our existing portfolio.

Medium Term View
Our medium term view is that the Equity markets have put in a bottom for the next few months at 1070 SPU. We want to see the S&P 500 Futures hold this 1206 ish level on a closing basis or we will reevaluate our view.

Metals…we’re looking for strength through year end.

30 Yr. Bonds …I’m treating 147 as the high for a long time. 143.10 now becomes our upside pivot. Closing above this level
will be short term positive the Bonds and negative the equities.

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