Today being FED day, it will be all about the Precious Metals after 1:15 CDT.
If there is even a hint of future monetary accommodation in the statement, the Gold & Silver will hold and rally. The metals have to maintain an initial break after the statement and find footing. Otherwise, Adios Amigos…the Miners, which still act like Death warmed over, will be shunned with the Gold and Silver.
AAPL…first good resistance is 604 for a reaction trade. Only a couple of closes over 608 would have me back in the ” It’s going to the Moon Camp”.
NASD 100… yesterday saw a nice daily double bottom put in @ 2625. The Fibs coming back up are 2687 followed by 2707.
General Comments…
30 Yr. Bonds either hold last night’s low of 141.25 or they break another full point. Don’t get married to the TLT. Futures Traders were stopped out just after the close yesterday. 142.09 will now act as near term resistance going back up.
We’ll be out of office from 10 CDT for client meetings.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
Long GDXJ 21 24.79/25.88
Long SDS 15.15
LONG TLT 117
Long ECA 17.45
Short Term View
We’re looking for the Gold to bottom.
We are placing a resting order to BUY NATGAS @ 1.70 ( Dr. Nenner’s Long term Downside Tgt.)
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.
30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk Odd theme going forward into late this qtr.
We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is Intelligent Risk Management.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.