Today, brings us this months episode of Full Moon Trading, in conjunction with the mid week shuffle.

Simply put, with so many technical models ,across a wide array of asset classes, trying to break down or change direction, today’s highs and lows should give us clues as to the next move in all the markets.

Spu’s…came into good support yesterday. We took off some of our shorts and went long the EWH ( Hong Kong) to spread off more of the risk. Now we have to see whether we reject price action into the low 1350’s-57 and reverse lower for a deeper correction, or that was it. Time will tell. The 40 point correction from the highs, was certainly enough to relieve the overbought condition of most instruments.

In any event we will not lose money on our positions.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

………………                               Stop Close             Profit Points

Short Spu’s                                1372                      1323-6/1308

Long SDS                                   16.00

Long EWH                                  17.20

Short EUR/USD                         134.10                    131.50/130 70

Long JJG                                       46                          48 ish

Working Orders…GTC…Good Till Canceled

We’re placing an open order GTC ( good till canceled) to buy the Oil Futures the first time down
into 102.20-50.

Short Term View

Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!

Trade to Make Money!

Medium Term View…

30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.

We’re going to be eyeballing a “possible” Long over the next couple of weeks via either the 30 Yr. Futures of the TLT ETF. We will be monitoring the Spu/Bond spread to confirm a trad able level. While the markets could certainly turn at month end, the week after could provide the better opportunity. Since we only trade what is in front of us,we’ll wait for a proper setup to initiate.

Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.

Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.

The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.