Stocks...
IWM…ran the monthly ORL stops below 109.86. Sustained price action and a close below this level opens the door to 107.44 ( the qtrly ORL #).
Spu’s…1958.50 fills my downside objective for this move. 1973-4 is mvg avg resistance. Price action and a close under 1954 is needed for a dump to the 1890’s and a retest of the 200 DMA.
Nasd 100… 3978-80 is the weekly hold #. Yesterday’s low was a test of the 50 DMA.
VIX…16.80-17.05 is resistance. Above look for a spike up to 17.50. 1248 is the Jan. high. 14.10 is today’s support.
Bonds …
30 yr. Bonds…price action over 138.05 projects a full point higher. Price action below 137.18 is needed for downside.
Bunds…need to close over 149.31 ( 50 DMA resistance ) for higher. 149.73-77 is the next daily & weekly resistance level. The eventual target for the Bund is a retest close to 151.00.
FX…
EURO…sustained price action over 127.80 is needed for a short covering rally.
Commodities…
OIL... I need to see a close over 93.45 for this to turn up.
Brent...96.60 will be pivotal. This is neutral. Above it remains firm/below it can break a dollar.
Gold…1240.50 is closing qtrly resistance.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
On a day with low volumes, 3 nasty bits of news sent Equities reeling.
The trade is being run by the spreads DAX/BUND & SPU/BOND.
137.29 is where I was looking to sell the Bonds after stopping myself out @ 137.02.
I got sucked into being early on the trade with the big risk on rally Wednesday.
We were stopped out yesterday @ 137.19
It’s not my style to give the Bonds more than 6 or 7 ticks of room on a trade.
This has been a major violation of my trading rules.
Foreign investors are buying the treasuries as the dollar goes higher giving them nice returns.
There was a similar trade in 2009-11 in Aussie treasuries when investors reaped almost a 40% return holding Bonds in Australia form an appreciating Aussie Dollar.
Tuesday is qtr end. The best trending trade has been the long side of the dollar which looks to get pressed into qtr end.
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Current Positions….
Short EURO 128.76 127.55/122
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Today’s Working Orders