We’ll be out of office, traveling on business, form 8:30 CDT for the rest of the day.
SPU/BONDS…are getting into that oversold area where the breaks can hold for a rebound
as seen Friday.
AUD/JPY…the weekly is breaking out of the top of the cloud by staying above 82.45.
This would be price positive the equities.
Resistance in the cross is 83.22. Match this up with any rally in the Equity Indices for a sell the first time up.
Don’t be trying to buy strength looking for follow through when this occurs.
EUR/AUD…is in a correction from a 6 month rally. The chart mirrors the Equity Indices. 120.88 is the next major Fib, however caution should be exercised selling weakness due to the condition of the market on the daily charts,( getting very oversold)
30 yr. Bonds…150.15 isn’t going away. Pay attention to the Spu/Bonds if this gets hit on the next Risk On wiggle.
The level should be good for another short term scalp in both instruments. ( Buying the Bonds and selling the Equity Indices)
General Comments…
AAPL… watching the technical s here will give you the key to the entire board.
558 bid will get you a rally close to 573-4, a level that should reject the first time up.
EUR/JPY & EUR/AUD…are both ripe for a rally. We favor Euro strength short term on the crosses, matching
some U.S. Equity strength as the path of least resistance early in the week.
This simply means that selling weakness in the Euro won’t be the highest risk/reward endeavor from here.
Model Trading Portfolio……………..
Stop Close Profit Points
No Current Holdings
Short Term View…
Short Term trend has been down in the Equity Indices…(Risk Off).
We’ll continue to look to fade Mid -Week Strength until proven wrong.
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds …150.15 ish is our short term upside pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. Closes below 145.20 will be needed for another leg down in the Bonds. Short term we have held and we will continue to favor the short side of the Bonds when market conditions allow.
The Spu/Bond spread has been running the show all year.
When the markets trade Risk Off the Bonds will be the vehicle of choice to receive those outflows from the equities. Meaning, you have to be very patient with your sell levels in the Bonds. They can still get priced to very low yields with the help of investor sentiment and Fed meddling.
We will be monitoring the Bonds for a breakdown in the existing correlation. “Long Equities=Long Bonds” going into the fall. So far the Bonds have been a better indicator of Risk aversion.
Equities... last qtr had us looking for a trip to last years close (1250) and we came close. This qtr we’ll use 1462 close as our upside closing pivot.
Gold & Silver…the June lows now become extremely important support levels. Both metals have been used as the long side of the spread against Short Euro & Aussie. Investors have been buying Dollars and then purchasing Precious Metals with those dollars.
Currencies…
AUD/USD… continues to be a good risk barometer. 102.25 ish is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive. In the big picture the Aussie has completed swing counts in both directions from the 111 high to the 95 level twice over the past 2 years.
USD/JPY…79.22 will be our macro pivot. ( App 126.40 Futures). Look for this level to run the Yen crosses against the Commodity Currencies. Use the crosses as the general risk tools they’ve been all year. CAD/JPY…AUD/JPY up, it’s Risk On.
We will be looking to short the Yen around 130.50 Futures, start looking under 77 USD/JPY for a potential Yen high.
EUR/USD….“119.75” +- 100 pips….is the macro pivot. Any price action the first time into this zone should be suspect ( possible Bear Trap), however closing a couple of days below this level is key to another big swing. This level has run several 20 cent swings in the Euro. It’s a significant area! These #’s are static and will not change. Furthermore, only closes over 131.50 will be price positive.
Natgas…We will continue to strategically look to buy hard breaks. The names will continue to be our preferred way to play the Natty. For the average investor the names provide more liquidity and a user friendly venue for capturing Alpha. 3.00 now becomes the key hold and pivot area for the next qtr.
Grains & Softs…Our long term strategy is to buy 8-10% breaks in the ETN & ETF’s.
Corn.. 7.55 is the macro pivot.
Soybeans…16.50 will be used for our macro closing pivot.
Oil…continues to be a good demand indicator, with failed rallies telegraphing little follow through in the Equity Indices. $78 which is the 50% Fib for the life of the Futures will continue be a key level on the downside and $100 on the up. When the market is Risk On the names here will provide a better trading venue for the average investor.