In a world where every trade is the same trade you can pick your poison. There is always another surrogate trade or low risk alternative once the board changes from Risk ON to Risk Off. Friday into last night was no different.

The Euro currency put in an outside reversal week to the downside. You also got confirmation of the same pattern with EUR/CHF. Last week we noted we were not crazy about the Euro in general, however we thought the opportunity was shorting it either against Long the Gold or the Swiss Franc, which have been much bigger trades.

We sold the SPU’s just off the high of the week on Thursday ( RISK OFF). This is now another 80 point winner.

EUR/CHF…There should be small stops under 110 with a close under 109.50 needed to get another 2 figures into the 107.50 area.

EURO..140.25 ish is a big weekly mvg avg level with a 2 yr. uptrend line on the monthly coming in around the 139.50 level.

European traders who did the flow trades ( opening range trades) last night should be looking to lock in most of the profits on these trades within the next hour. U.S. Futures Traders….the same goes for you. You can always get back in tonight.

WHY? In general the market has a history of big out sized moves over these types of Holiday weekends. The vast majority of the time that I have personally left with huge one way bets, that were big in the money, I returned a day later only to see my profits evaporate. In other words you can’t count your money unless you book some of it.

A lot of damage has already been done based on the news out of Europe. The board should be Risk Off into the Globex close. My advice is to take some money going into London’s or the Globex close and wait it out for tonight’s Asian action.