A.M. Look 5/16/13

KIWI…NZD/USD…81.00 is overextended today
AUD/USD…this is getting overextended with 97.50 a place to look for a bounce today.

Euro…128.20 is interim support. We’re looking for the 127.50 level to exit shorts. Below this level we’re looking for another 200 points. It’s still the wrong way on the crosses, meaning there is buying of Euro and selling of Aussie & Kiwi.

The original stop in the Euro was 130.15. This should be lowered to 129.70.

EUR/AUD…131.92 is big stuff. Anywhere up into the high 131 level will be possible Bull Trap territory. Do not buy strength in this pair until closing convincingly over this area.

Gold…I have a big fat green line on my qtrly charts we haven’t been close to since 2008. That # is 1261. No bottom fishing until then.

30 yr. Bonds…the levels haven’t changed. We’re looking for a break out one way or another from yesterday’s range.

TBT…keep the sell stop @ 64.60 and add “Buy More” on a close above 66.

General Comments or Valuable Insight

The board is still a Long Equity/ Short Bond play
SPU/BOND spread has been on fire since unemployment.

When the plungers (short sellers) get excited as they did yesterday afternoon, we’ve been putting out the areas which can create a downside. So far…No MAS!

For those of you that are Long EUR/AUD, if you sold the Euro you’re now either short just the Aussie or some of you might be short both.

Game plan for the first group…Buy the Euro back against your short Aussie anywhere near 127.50, this will give you an extra 2 figures on that cross.

Aussie…if you’re naked short the AUD/USD, this is the place to take some off the table. It’s getting very oversold. Trailing stops should be over last night’s high of 99.15

Note…we always write a stop with any instrument we‘re interested in. As the instruments become profitable those stops should be raised to your entry level so you don’t lose money.

Short Term View…

It’s the mid-week shufflelook out for contra-trend moves over the next 2 days.
Use the Chicago openings to help guide your trading.

Use the 4/30/13 closes for your short term pivots in everything!

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