AUD/JPY…just tried unchanged on the week @ 86.22 and held.

AUD/USD…is flirting with it’s 200 day @ 104.07….Both of these instruments have to sustain under the overnight lows for more Risk Off.

Euro…show me something over 134 or under 133 and I’ll have a second cup of coffee to wake up.

Spu’s….need sustained price action back under 1400 to get interested in more downside.

30 Yr. Bonds…we’ll wait it out and see what develops. The worst that happens is we push the trade @ break-even. It’s a free look at this point.

Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings

………………                               Stop Close             Profit Point

Long 30 Yr. Bonds                  137.19                     139.13            OCO…GTC…All Session Resting Order

Short Term View

Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!

Trade to Make Money!

Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.

30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.

We’re going to be eyeballing a “possible” Long this week via either the 30 Yr. Futures of the TLT ETF. We will be monitoring the Spu/Bond spread to confirm a trad able level. While the markets could certainly turn at month end, the week after could provide the better opportunity. Since we only trade what is in front of us,we’ll wait for a proper setup to initiate.

Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.

Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.

The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.