It’s another un enjoyment Friday. This day has been a non event for a long time with the exception of the metals. The first Friday has typically shown a significant high or low for the next few weeks in Gold & Silver.
Silver…35.30-40 ish shows the 200 day mvg avg with the first significant Fib coming into play on the major swing from the $50 high to the $26 low. It’s a big zone! with resting stops over 35.70.
Gold...will be all about how it holds the first break. Price action will be very important. 1800 should be a tough area the first time up with long term buy stops resting just above.
Spu’s…”the tail end of the world” the smelly end of the dog! ( because this has not led the mkt!), will be judged on where it holds the first break and if it can sustain price action over 1327 to move higher.
AUD/USD…resting buy stops are just over 107.60-70. 106.23 is near support. We got ticked out on our stop last night. Still looking to buy on breaks.
The game and the overall board has been instrument specific. We have placed our bets and put in our stops. Now it’s time to put on your trading mask and mail gloves ( so you can’t click the mouse). Let the game unfold.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
………………Stop Close Profit Points
Long TLT 116.50 121.70
Long XLE 70.40 80
Long NEM 59.80 65.50
Long SLW 34.40 37.40
Long DE 85.90
Long COP 67
Long Gold 1738
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.
Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.
Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.
The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.