I will be out of office next week taking a much needed hiatus.
There will be no updates next week.
I will be going totally off grid.
It’s time to recharge.
It’s time to recharge.
Stocks...
Spu’s…we’ll take a look after the dust settles
MSFT & CB ” Chubb Ins.” are two names that have had a good sell off. The price action you want to see is a either a new spike low or a hold which has them maintain and close higher on the day.
In other words you’re looking for signs of a tradable low, a # you can use for risk management.
Equities…it’s that time of the year for the earnings lotto. Google “earnings calendar” or look on Bloomberg to see who’s up for the day.
Yours truly is a pragmatic technician not a fundamental analyst. If you’ve got an idea, look at playing via the options if they are cheap.
Bonds…
Bonds…”USH” I’ve been looking for the magic number to sell @.
I’ve caught this trade a couple of times and have decided not to tempt fate today.
The Bonds will lead the board. It will be a reaction trade for professionals only.
There should be resting buy stops above 129.25. The 50 day mvg avg (resistance) is 131.02. Adept day traders can give it a go here on the short side, however you could be risking as much as a full point.
You can only use a level so many times before it bites you in the rear end. Simply put I don’t have a high confidence level.
FX…
I’ve written the resistance and sell levels. If we get filled I’ll write a stop.
A big Bond rally could cause an overrun of the levels by the Bots.If you place a stop with the sell order you’d run the risk of getting filled on both.
We’ve seen this too many times when the High Frequency programs sweep the order books on these data release days.
If you want to get an off the market fill you have to leave the order in and then react to the fill.
Commodities…
Oil…can rally to 93.50 and not change the Point & Figure pattern.
Resting macro buy stops for this swing are over 94.00.
Brent…107.39 is the 200 day. Look for price rejection at this level the first time up.
Metals…the levels remain the same.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
It’s going to take a miss in the expectations today to rally the Bonds and break the dollar.
I’m bearish Bonds, however I’m not willing to roll the dice today to pick a high.
It’s been a good run going into year end.
I’m mentally fatigued which isn’t good for a trader, so I’m going to sit this one out.
USDA Crop report is a 11:00 CDT.
Just when you think the day will be over the grain names will get busy.
We’ve raised our Buy stop on close in the JJG to 43.65
Short Term View…
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s.
We have a Long Equity Bias. We’ll be leaving our trailing stops as is.
Current Positions….
APPL Long
SSO Long
………………………… …………………………
Today’s Working Orders
Buy the JJG @ 43.65 Stop On Close GTC
Sell Yen Futures @ 96.95 GTC
Buy USD/JPY @ 103.25 GTC
Sell Euro @ 137.40 GTC
Enclosed for your review are the third party audited results from when we started keeping score in April.