AM. Look 10/21/13

Stocks..

Spu’s…use 1730 as the near term pivot.

Bonds
30 Yr. Bonds…support start @ 133.07-132.28. This would be a good area to buy before you sell. 135.00 is weekly closing resistance.

FX…

AUD/JPY….stays firm as long as it maintains above 94.30 which will act as the downside pivot. If you’re a raging equity Bull this is the place to try a Long with a 30 point stop.

Commodities
Crude…will be in play tomorrow into Wednesday.
General Comments or Valuable Insight

Anytime the Vix has gone into the 12’s on an overshoot, institutional players have used it to buy cheap portfolio insurance. Of course it can go lower, however I don’t think we’ll get hurt running the small 14/16 call spread for a couple of days.

Names with earnings coming out will be the place to look for opportunity.
Short Term View…

Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s. The Equity Indices seem stretched at these levels.

The one market I was looking at buying as a surrogate to the U.S. was Mexico (EWW). It has not held up making me reticent to be chasing strength in the U.S.
Either the U.S. has come too far of Mexico is mispriced
The Nikkei has more allure than the Spu’s.

Go with the flow. Use the 9/30 closes as your macro pivots. Trade the opening ranges and early time frames.

Today’s Working Orders..
Buy TLT @ 105.40 with a 104.40 Sell Stop On Close GTC “Good Till Canceled”


Buy 30 yr. Dec Bond Futures @ 133.00 with a 132.00 Sell Stop On Close GTC.


Current Positions

  Opened Price Stop
IBM Equity Long

10/17/13

174.5

169

GS Equity Long

10/17/13

158.1

154

VIX Equity Long 14/16 call spread

10/18/13

40

 

 
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