Stocks...
Equity Indices will be all about the mid-week shuffle. They’ve tried up early week.
We need to see where they hold late week.
Bonds …
Bunds…155.74 is the key feature. Maintaining and closing below this level would mark the technical top of this instrument with very little in the way of support before the 200 DMA @ 153.97
30 Yr. Bonds… Eventually, this should trade close to the old continuation high of 153.11.
154.27 was the March low with resting sell stops below. This would be a good spot for a major screw job the first time down.
Gilts…QGAM5…are getting close to their 200 DMA @ 117.08
FX…
EURO…112.50 is weekly mvg avg resistance. Point & Figure chart shows new weakness under 110.60 is needed for more downside.
EUR/AUD…this cross failed to trade it’s 200 DMA late last week. Below 142.00 look for the Euro to lead weakness in this cross back towards 140.60
DXEM…has had a descent retrace. As long as the index stays higher on the week (95.38), look for a retest of 96.55.
AUD/JPY…is attempting an ORH day with a close over 94.38
Commodities…
OIL..61.20 should prove to be good resistance the first time up.
NATGAS…the mid 2.80’s should prove sticky the first time up
General Comments or Valuable Insight
I got a little out of step with the market while attending a conference last week. I’m going to be patient for a day or two.
The energy complex is doing a sideways to higher pressure relief pattern after the recent rally. Continue to look for the breaks to hold.
There is some profit taking in the Short Bund & Oats vs our 10 yr. this A.M.
EUR/AUD has done it’s expected swing last night.
Just let the day play out.
