Stocks...
FDX...breaks out to the upside over 175.
VIX…14.85-59 is major support. I’m buying the 16 Calls Expiring 2/18/15 if we print into this level. Size matters with this strategy.
The goal is to hedge up half your long portfolio. I’m hoping these will be trading around a dollar or lower.
For this to happen you need a good spike up in the Indices, which will crush volatility.
This is the time to buy Flood Insurance.
Bonds …
No Change…
30 Yr. Bonds…(M) 165.00 was support that is now resistance and the upside momentum #. Below, there is room for a move to around 161.27.
The June’s got close enough yesterday (their 50 DMA) to Buy the TLT for a bounce.
This isn’t rocket science, it either holds in here for a couple of point bounce or it doesn’t.
Lower lows should be suspect to downside follow through. They can be bear traps, so vigilance will be required for mega Bears selling weakness into this break.
30 Yr. Bonds…(H) is a tale of two charts. The daily shows the 50 DMA @ 146.14, however the continuation shows 146.29 as it’s 50 DMA.
Both #’s can bounce the first time down. 146.29 is more important to me on a closing basis,for this would leave way to a test of 145.00.
FX…
USD/JPY…118.80 is the low risk level to sell Yen and buy dollars. (84.10 Futures).
GBP/JPY...hit resistance @ 184.07 and is now in retrace mode. 181.80-182.30 is the support zone. This is a must hold level closing level to keep the board Risk On.
GBP/USD…153.40 is mvg avg resistance. This is not an area to buy strength.
Commodities…
OIL…50.30 seems to be first p&F resistance, sustaining much above this level will elicit short covering.
Bounce levels on the downside remain 47.30 & 46.35.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
It’s all about the mid-week shuffle.
TLT was purchased as a hedge to the portfolio. We’ll just let that play out.
I was surprised to see the Yen trade @ 118.80 again. Just another example of keeping your qtrly technical levels open on your desk.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Current Positions…. Entry Stop TGT
LONG ZIOP 7.99 8.00 Close
LONG AAPL 116
LONG BRKB 149.67 149.00 Close
LONG DXJ 50.38 49.90 Close
LONG ZTS 46 Call exp 2/13/15 .15
LONG TLT 129.40 128.70 Close………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
LONG DXJ 50.38 49.90 Close
LONG ZTS 46 Call exp 2/13/15 .15
LONG TLT 129.40 128.70 Close………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Working Orders…..
SELL another 30% piece of the original ZIOP position @ 10.90 GTC.
BUY 15 VIX 16 2/18/16 Calls @ the market when the Vix cash trades 14.90.
This is a situational trade.