General Execution Note…
Most of you are at your screens for the first few minutes of trading everyday, regardless of your day job. When an instrument is up 5% just after the opening, and 10% in a couple of trading sessions, HIT THE SELL BUTTON and take some money! It’s just prudent trading….We trade to make money.
Yesterday both SLW and MCP were a half a dollar shy of the tgt. areas and up big. I can’t always get something out. It is incumbent upon every investor to be smart and lock in some money.
When Placing an order to get in or out at a particular level, give the market AND ME a little wiggle room. Scale your orders just above or below the levels so you get at least a partial fill. You can always re-access the situation.
The Today Show…
Yesterday’s closes now become the pivots for short term trading.
Above…Buy the breaks into
Below… sell the rallies against
OIL…and in particular, some of the Oil names have had a rough couple of weeks. COP,CVX,XOM…We’ll have our charts up, looking to see how the price action sets up for possible Long additions to our portfolio.
Day traders should look to buy the really hard breaks in Oil futures.
SPU’s…Aussie…same levels as previously mentioned…Spu’s are having trouble in the 1317-19 area with AUD/USD showing resistance into 107.22 cash. The futures are trading app 55 points below cash. The forwards have come in dramatically.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
………………Stop Close Profit Points
Long TLT 116.50 121.70
Long MCP 29.80 33.50
Long XLE 70.40 80
Long NEM 59.80 65.50
Long SLW 34.40 37.40
Short Term View
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds …147 is the all time high in the front month futures. We will watch price action off this level for any potential surrogate moves in the currencies or stock indices. 144.20 ish now becomes our macro pivot. All new closing strength over 145.20 would have us looking for more upside in the Bonds. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities.
Equities…We will continue to strategically buy hard breaks in Etf’s and individual instruments we feel have the best risk profiles going into the end of the first qtr.
Currencies…Our view is the Aussie Dollar remains a most attractive investment. The Bonds are high yielding making this currency desirable on breaks. It also has the benefit of the underlying commodity and Asian growth story to support buying the dips.
The Aussie typically mirrors the S&P 500 which also makes it an easy surrogate to trade, whether Risk On or Risk off. It’s liquidity makes it easy to hedge currency risk if you’ve the underlying Bonds, which makes you Long Aussie by default.