One of the main features of last Qtr were the outside reversals in the dollar against the Singapore Dollar, Aussie, Canada and Brazilian Real. These chart patterns were a reflection of Global DE-leveraging or better known as the “Risk Off Trade”.

Yes, the Euro did it on the short term time frame charts but not the qtrly.

A near miss was the Kiwi ( NZD/USD).

We will be paying close attention to the Dollar highs in the above currencies for continued follow through. Dollar strength has been a by product of the Risk Off Trade.

The flip side here is that the dollar can have a good break to re-test the reversal closes against the Sing, Real, Aussie and Canada. This would likely come with U.S. equity strength.

The one stand out, for failing to get the job done, was the Swiss National Bank. Both the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF failed to put in a chart pattern to signal an end to Switzerland being the haven of last resort.

In Equity Index land, only the NASDAQ has the outside reversal pattern. This is a higher high followed by a lower low than the previous time frame. 2183-92 will be a big closing level for market tone.

EURO…133.85-134.00 is the macro pivot. This represents last years close as well as this Qtrly close. You need not know anymore than, “above” (It’s buy before you sell) and “below” (It’s sell before you buy). It’s a pivot.

The 156 level in the British Pounds is the same type of level as the Euro.

The Bonds and the Bunds are back to pivotal levels. Watch for tone. More Bond strength would likely see more equity weakness.

Model trading Portfolio…Curent Holdings

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