A.M. Look 10/18/13

Stocks…

AAPL…529 is the key resistance and the upside closing pivot.

NFLX…closing over 331 projects another 20 dollars higher. NFLX is attempting an ORH month as long as it holds 320 on breaks.

Nasd 100is trading @ the 2/3rds of all time. 3320 is the Fib, however the last swing count projects to as high as 3370. Above this level there is nothing for another 200 points.

Bonds…

30 Yr. Bonds…134.27-135.02 is weekly resistance. The 1st Tgt on this rally is 137 +- a few.

TLT…108.00 seems to line up with the Futures for weekly resistance, maintaining above tgt’s 110.

I know a few of you went with the ORH pattern and got long. This is a good spot to pay for your trade and let the rest ride.

FX…

Euro,AUD/USD & GBP/USD have all reached my tgt’s. Closing above these levels for 2 days will lead to further Dollar weakness.
Commodities
Crude….December (Z) is now front month.
The spread is 25-30 cents premium over the November (X) which is nothing for the crude.
November expires next Tuesday.
(X) 102.35 will be pivotal for as much as 2 dollars, which will
take you to the 104.50-70 area.
With the Dollar getting trashed hard assets and commodities become cheaper for offshore investors in Dollar terms.
If you’re a bear, be careful to sell them only where you can mange your risk with a 30 cent stop.
General Comments orValuable Insight

Markets and individual names are getting rich again.

I explained late yesterday why I was getting cautious. This is a big area
in the Nasd 100. Price action at this area will tell us how the market will
move.

That gives you 2 scenarios; back and fill to the last breakout of 3240 or much higher prices.

Trade on your own terms. Chasing rallies is tough.

Short Term View…

Right now individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s.

Go with the flow. Use the 9/30 closes as your macro pivots. Trade the opening ranges and early time frames.

Today’s Working Orders…
Buy TLT @ 105.40 with a 104.40 Sell Stop On Close GTC “Good Till Canceled”
Buy 30 yr. Dec Bond Futures @ 132.18 with a 132.00 Sell Stop On Close GTC.
Buy FXA @ 95.35Buy AUD/USD @ 95.35
Current Positions….
                                          Open        Stop             TGT
Long GS 25%                      158.10      154 Close
Long IBM
 25%                    174.50      169 Close

This is a 25% position

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