Welcome to the mid-week shuffle.
30 yr. Bonds…148.07 (M) 147.19(U) is near term support.
Spu’s …the Sept needs to sustain above 1322 ish to rally.
Bunds…could go as 140.70 and hold..this will be a key monthly closing level. A close below at month end will signal the low in rates for Germany.
General Comments…
The equity indices are trying to bottom near term. Today into tomorrow’s price action should be key in ascertaining direction.
ECA..INTC…MMM are putting in price positive formations.
We held last months closes yesterday in the equity indices on the downside and stopped rallying in the Bonds at the monthly close there as well. The spreads then flipped the rest of the day. We need all new sustained closing price action under those levels in the Indices for lower.
Investors are split between those that think there is one more big rally in the equities before a serious break and those that think we’ve seen the rally Friday into Sunday night. I have no strong opinion about this. Just trade what you see, not what you want to happen.
We’re raising our trailing stop in the SDS!….We’ll send this out in a bit.
Model Trading Portfolio
……………..
Long SDS 16.25 intra-day ( 1292.50 Spu) Pay for your trade
Short Term View…Every Trade is the same trade. It’s either Risk On or Risk Off.
It’s time to hit singles, then take the money and run. The board is trading Risk Off with rallies for the past month, in all Risk assets, being met with sellers.
Location ,Location,Location….If you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you, will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…
30 Yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell all rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk off theme we see going forward late into this qtr. Weekly closes much over 382 will give us pause to re-evaluate our premise.
I’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a retest of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test in the next few months.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr…..we are not getting married to a central theme, nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is “Intelligent Risk Management”.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
Natgas…we’re looking to buy this @ the 1.70 level.