Stocks..
Spu’s…have come a long way. We’ll have to monitor the pullbacks today
to see where they hold on breaks.
Bonds
30 yr. Bonds…133.11-15 would be a low risk sell zone. Closing
over 133.24 would put the Bonds back on positive footing.
FX…
USD/JPY…98.85-99.15 is the Yen resistance zone. App 100.88-101.24
Futures. Keep selling before you buy Yen at this zone until proven wrong.
Commodities…
General Comments orValuable Insight
YESTERDAY WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF TRADING THE PRICE ACTION AND TIME FRAMES.
The Equities opened on their lows, with the Equity Indices immediately braking out of their respective opening ranges to the upside.
After the initial selling in London, every major time frame held and closed higher.
We put out Stop close only trades before noon CDT knowing that closing above these levels would lead to higher prices.
The difference between a great trader and an average trader is one who can see that they need to lead off on the stop close or pay up later at a higher level. This is the Art of Trading.
My schedule didn’t allow me the time in front of a screen yesterday to watch so I paid up on the close.
The previous few days, this discipline saved us lot of money by not chasing the rally at the wrong levels by buying prematurely.
Stop Close Only orders are a two edged sword. You want to make sure the break out is occurring, however you don’t want to be chasing a big directional move that skews your entry level giving you a much bigger stop and risk profile.
Such is trading. There is no right or wrong here. Only an observation that the intuitive Trader knows when to lead off. Most times they are correct, however when any active trader sees they are premature they just bail on the position and wait to give it another go.
Knowing where to look is half the battle. That is why we focus on the OR patterns so much.
Failure to follow thru gives you a tight stop level for a contra trend trade.
New lows or highs followed by a quick reversal gives the active professional risk definition to make a trade against the grain to see what develops. These can turn out to be big home runs.
You just never know for sure.
What you do know is your risk to give it a go.
We bought a small piece of the TBT (short Bond Trade) to leg the Spu/Bond.
Short Term View…
Keep trading to make money. The opportunity will be in individual names.
Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s. The Equity Indices seem stretched at these levels.
Go with the flow. Use the 9/30/13 ( September 30th) closes as your macro pivots. Trade the opening ranges and early time frames.
Current Positions….
Long SSO
Long SSO
Long DXJ
Long TBT 77.40 75.20 82/90
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