We’re back to my favorite look for the past 2 qtr’s, EUR/CHF.

In Sept 2010 I wrote a piece as to the condition of this cross. We stated to not be short the Euro when the entire street said yes. The Euro was trading 119.ish. The next qtr we put out the same comments off the double bottom in the EUR/CHF @ 124 off the qtrly chart, that low was 128.80 ish Euro. You all know what happened.

Now, I am saying this cross is past it’s sell by date. Once again I would look for a low in this cross next Thursday. It is very oversold, so no matter what the directional follow through after Qtr end, I would be hard pressed to believe that follow through price action. Instead, you should be using the Qtrly close as a pivot for this cross to go back and re-test the 124 level. This would screw the entire planet.

The game then becomes which one leads, Euro strength or Suisse weakness. Suisse weakness could line up with a sell off in the metals. Note..you have 4 more trading days for this cross to remain weak. Directional flow should continue into month end.

Irregardless, this cross has dictated Euro direction for the past couple of qtr’s off the Qtrly close.

Watch for directional bias!