Stocks...
APPL…is trading @ 96.20 as i write. A failure to get back above 97.50
leaves way for lower retests. Longer term bulls will throw in the towel below 90.
AAPL needs to find a low today with some Fed help in the afternoon.
Spu’s…Battle lines have been drawn. 1851 …1913.50 on top is initial resistance.
DAX…has to remain above 9561 to avoid another puke.
Bonds..
Bunds…caution back below 161.55, today’s ORL#
TLT…loses daily upside momentum below 125.60.
FX…
The Currency crosses are retesting the ORH patterns from yesterday.
Typically when you see those patterns they either get up and go in early Asia and extend or they rollover to retest the pattern integrity.
Clearly nobody is interested in stepping out before this afternoon.
Commodities…
Gold…the hourly charts remain friendly above 1116.
General Comments or Valuable Insight.
This is going to be another big mid-week shuffle.
Last week was the first week in 6 that we didn’t put in a mid week high and rollover.
Just the opposite…we had a big low after London’s close followed by a monster rally.
This is the price action needed to start to turn the technical model from down to possibly up..
For the Bulls you’d want to see a spike down hold after the minutes and then rally.
Bears are looking for a failed rally. If the Fed kowtows to the tape we could see a rally into tomorrow’s close.
The past 12 hours the flow has been negative equities since AAPL earnings. This can continue into London’s close.
Chasing late London weakness before the Fed is a risky proposition.
Expect a volatile afternoon.
Time Frame Trading.