Reality Check,let me count the times we’ve seen these swings since Aug 1. I think we’re on our 11th swing of 8-10% moves in the Spu’s. If you added in the Bond side of the spread, most moves were closer to 12-15%. SPU/USU up or down.
Think about it, that’s just the past few months. We’ve had plenty of opportunity this year. Hey, I’ve missed a few, and I’ve caught a few. The object is to not get run over.
The market is right where we exited our longs a couple of weeks ago, before the last swan dive.
Swinging for the fences this late in the game, if you haven’t made your year, is unwise.
Don’t think you’ve missed anything this year, the S&P is still approximately unchanged on the year. That number is 1253, which just so happens to match up with the 200 day mvg avg.@ 1256. The entire yearly gains in the NASDAQ and Dow were made in yesterday’s session, thanks to the Central Banks.
Private wealth guys are looking to change their money managers, as if they’ve just had an inconvenient senior moment and need a fresh pair of undies!
If the chorus starts singing, “Is that all there is my friend”, we’ll see a trip to at least 1206 again. You have to be patient and let the markets set up again. Chasing has proven to be a bad idea all year. We’ve just seen another big standard deviation move in 3-4 trading days. This is consistent with most moves this year.
Being a Chi Town guy, I have a 45 by the group, Chicago playing in the background. Pending the day, side one is “Spinning Wheel”, side two “You’ve made me so very happy”. Just be patient, you’ll get another turn on the merry-go-round.
The game starts and stops with the European session. We aren’t running this show of late.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
No positions
Our view is that the rest of the year will be a High Volatility, Highly Technical, Rumor Driven, Time Frame, Lemming Effect Day Trade.
The question is who’s day? Right now it’s Europe’s.
Medium Term View…
We believe the political and economic risks are now heavily skewed to an all cash portfolio. The markets will become a big day trade.
30 Yr. Bonds …I’m treating 147 as the high for a long time. 143.10 now becomes our upside pivot. Closing above this level
will be short term positive the Bonds and negative the equities.