A.M.Look 10/25/13

Stocks..

IEO…price action above 82.40 is positive.

DIG…64.30 has to hold for higher

XLE…85.60 is the hold level

TBT…sustained price action over 72.65 is needed for yesterday’s ORH pattern confirmation.

Bonds

30 yr.…135.00 will be pivotal. Sustained and closing price action under 135.00 is needed for a downside to materialize.

FX…
Of the commodity currencies the Kiwi looks to be the most vulnerable.
NZD/USD…weekly sell stops are 82.80. A close under this area would leave way for the 81’s.
AUD/JPY...sustained price action under 93.20 leaves way for more Aussie weakness

Commodities…

OIL…The levels haven’t changed. 97.50-80 will be pivotal. 98.73 is the continuation 200 day mvg avg. I doubt you’d see much more than 99.50 on an overrun. This would be a good level to initiate new shorts.

General Comments or Valuable Insight

Our Stop Close Only orders were Not elected in the Energy ETF’s, nor the 30 Bond Future, which needed a close below 134.02.

 

Look at the Energy ETF’s for opening range trades today.
TBT did not get corroborating pattern confirmation from the 30 Yr. Futures. A close under 71.90 will likely see us close this out and wait for the 200 day mvg avg. ( 70.30) , which would line up with the 30 yr. futures closer to 137.00.
VIX…Keep a weather eye on this today. 13.04 was last weeks close.
This will be today’s barometer and pivot in the Vix.
Resting macro sell stops are under 12.34. Putting on 13/15 Call spreads if and when the stops are elected would be a smart trade for any investor long equities.
Short Term View…

Individual stocks look to be an easier read based off their own technical s. The Equity Indices seem stretched at these levels.

Go with the flow. Use the 9/30 closes as your macro pivots. Trade the opening ranges and early time frames.

Today’s Working Orders..

 

Sell WTI Crude Oil @ 99.45

 

Current Positions…

     Opened   Price Stop
IBM Equity Long

10/17/13

174.5

172.40
TBT
 Equity Long

10/24/13

     72.57
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