December 2018 Update

                                                       Context

As is typical with market corrections, they seemingly come out of nowhere catching most investors off-guard. This most recent correction which began early October was no exception. However, clients of WhiteWave were forewarned with enough time to prepare. Why? Because WhiteWave has a reliable and repeatable process developed over a forty year period.

Most recently, our proprietary Risk Models were able to identify the risks forming in January and again  @ the beginning of October suggesting a very high probability of an increase in volatility. This gave WhiteWave clients sufficient time to take defensive measures to protect their portfolios depending upon their trading style. Our clientele consists of Retail Investors, RIA’s, and Hedge Funds; each with a different approach. Some trimmed long positions, others bought Put options while others used Inverse ETFs as a hedge. Regardless of their approach they were prepared and profited from our process.

The WhiteWave process employs elements of price, volatility, Matrix Levels, risk spreads, among others, across multiple duration. We measure and record the data for U.S. stocks, Bonds, Currencies, Oil, Gold Commodities, and Foreign Stocks & Bonds.

Our models enable us to distinguish between a market correction vs. a bear market. Throughout 2017 when many continually called for a market top, our models kept long-only and RIA clients invested through January 2018. At which point our models detected rising risks as described above. Our models signaled the same breakdown the first week of October. For active traders our intraday alerts provide trading levels for day-traders and those wishing to trade counter-trend moves.

                                                   Forecast

The October 2018 volatility has continued through December and continues as I write.

Oct 4th we went intermediate-term Bearish Equity Indices.

December we stopped looking for bounces to hold up in the Indices. Our technical models, that forewarned the profit taking in October, we’re now signaling a more dire picture for risk assets.

We started looking for a more meaningful mean reversion to as low as the 2016 election low. If this occurs, it’s the equivalent of a 30% mean retracement from the 2007-8 low.

12/3   Sold all remaining Long exposure on the opening.

Our Index models moved from Neutral to Bearish. This is the first time we’ve changed this indicator to Bearish since the inception of WhiteWave in 2010.

The week of 12-10-18 we alerted our clients to fade mid-week Index strength.

Quarterly & Semi-Annual work is signaling a bigger top forming than the 1987 crash and the Nasd 100 tech blow-off high in 2000. From a technical perspective, the patterns look to be more important than any of the previous highs.

Technical Models always turn before the Fundamental data, which is a lagging indicator.

For the past few weeks we’ve been focused on long-term work so our RIA clients would focus on protecting their portfolios and not listen to the gibberish from the Financial news outlets.

We’re looking for a soft first qtr in 2019 with trading rallies of as much as 160 points in the S&P 500.

Our overall opinion is that we’re now in a Bear Market and needs to be traded as such.

No system is perfect, but our process is reliable and repeatable with models designed to improve the probability of success. Whether you are a day trader or long term investor, we can help you stay ahead of consensus.

Our published upside price target for the S&P 500 @ 2965 was missed by a mere 20 Points in late September.

WhiteWave keeps you executing timely trades through the use of proper trade location.

WhiteWave December 2018 Update for Long-Term Investors /RIA’s

One consistent question from RIA’s has been where to buy?
Our consistent answer was that this was no longer a buy and hold market.

Risk models still need time to repair the price damage from this sell off and signal something more than a trade able rally.
This could take months or years.

WhiteWave November 2018 Update for Short-Term Investors

 December focus11/29 Judd’s room members bought Risk assets head of the G20
Trump-Xi talks on trade.

11/30 Long FXI Z 43 Call @ $.37
Long LVS Z 21 Call @ $1.85

12/3  Sold all risk assets on the opening.
Recommended longer-time frame traders to either sell or hedge.

12/3 Sold FXI Z 43 Call @ $.43
Sold LVS Z 21 Call @ $3.85

12/4 Long JNJ 12/21 Call @ $3.28

Sold JNJ Z 21 Call @ $4.7212/19 Long UNH @ $253.60

Sold 1/2 UNH @ $256.11
Stopped 1/2 UNH @ $253.6412/20 Sold MSFT @ 102.41
Bought MSFT @ 99.70
Sold TLT @ 120.84
Bought TLT @ 120.80

The TLT trade was a surrogate for my last stab at a bounce in the Indices.

WhiteWave keeps you executing timely trades through the use of proper trade location.

New Feature

Daily Chat Room

A live forum for Investors and Traders where we discuss current capital flows, instruments by request, and charts.

We feature 1-2 low risk opportunities a day.

Q4 2017-Q1 2018  Chronology of trades
https://www.whitewavetradingstrategies.com/whitewave-april-2018-update-2/

If you’d like to learn more you can click on the research link to our site or just call.

Click on the link to learn more or get back on our mailing list.

www.whitewavetradingstrategies.com

December Fan Mail;

Hey Judd thanks for the heads up!
I exited my growth exposure the last week of September on the highs.
A. G .
This RIA has been 80% cash since 10/1/18

Great service to learn the price levels for market views and risk management.
Buy the whole service and you will be able to know the price levels that matter for your limit orders and risk management.

The daily room has members who bring a lot of experience and different viewpoints. That’s a great value in itself.

Best regards,
Peter

Keep your feedback coming.
We are open to comments as we continually strive to make our product better.

All my best,
Judd
This entry was posted in Archive and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.