Oil…94.80 ish is an area short term traders should be wary of.
Platinum…This led the Risk On rally the first week of January. This looks to want to re-test that break out around 1437.
AUD/JPY…closing the week under 80.00 is negative, however caution should be exercised near 79.44 the first time down.
General Comments…
Markets are trading generally oversold just as they were trading overbought for the first qtr of the year. This simply means keep your head in your charts for areas that will lead to short covering rallies.
The levels in the Equity Indices remain the same.
We endeavor to give you the keys to the Board ( quote board) on a daily basis …ours has all the major Stocks,ETF’s Currencies,Currency Crosses, World Bond markets and Commodities.
Yesterday AUD/JPY @ “81.09”, the 200 day, ran the board. The level capped the Risk On Rally in the Aussie and Oil. This A.M. USD/CAD is making another run @ it’s 200 day of 100.58.
As Investors or traders you need to pay attention to the game and the market tells.
Model Trading Portfolio…Current Holdings
……………… Stop Close Profit Points
No Current Holdings
Short Term View
We have a Risk Off bias
Location ,Location,Location….if you have a good trad able pattern “Good Risk reward!” You just have to seize the opportunity and see what develops!
Take what the market gives you , will be the order of the day.
Trade to Make Money!
Medium Term View…This will be updated next week for the 2nd Qtr.
30 yr. Bonds … 138.00 ish now becomes our macro pivot. Closing above this level would be short term positive the Bonds and negative the Equities. We will look to buy a multi-point break in the 30 for a rally into the fall in keeping with a general risk averse market theme.
Equities…While, we were in strategic buy mode for the first quarter, we now believe the market is fairly priced. The equity indices deserve a break. The operative question becomes, from what level and when can a break develop. We will monitor instruments on an individual basis vs. the general Risk On/ Risk Off correlation we saw last year, when most instruments traded via the theme of the day.
Copper…We’re looking to sell rallies in the Copper against a 377 weekly close. We regard this as an ancillary short to the general Risk Odd theme going forward into late this qtr.
We’ve been doing this 35+ years…I’m hard pressed to recall a year when we haven’t gone back and attempted a re-test of the yearly close in the equity indices at least once. Yes, we are looking for a re-test over the next 5-4- months. Indices can still grind higher to the upper tgt levels over the next few weeks before profit taking ensues.
We are going to be highly flexible this qtr….we are not getting married to a central theme , nor are we getting into the long term prediction business. Having a bias is one thing, being patient and executing with a defined risk parameter another. Our business is Intelligent Risk Management.
Currencies…AUD/USD continues to be a good risk barometer. 102 is the near term macro pivot! ( This is a multi-year level) 111 is the upside pivot. Anything in between is just that, in between….no break outs! Closes above 105.30 would be deemed near term positive.
NATGAS…We’re looking to buy the Natty @ 1.70.